I remember during the 2007/8 crisis a common refrain to hear from finance guys was “flat is the new up”. Well, it felt exactly like that with oil prices for the last two months, with oil finally ending flat/up for the first week in eight thanks to a great spurt today (16th January, 2015). And boy, did the oil majors respond, with four out of the top five gainers (by market cap) being well known oil stocks.
Much like during the crisis of 2007/2008, I’m being asked by people what I think of prices here. I always respond with the two golden rules of investment advice:
Rule number one: never take investment advice.
Rule number two: never give investment advice
Having worked in FX/equity sales, trading, and research for nearly 10 years, I’ve learnt that nobody has a clue where the market will go next. Only the astrology industry has as much bullshit in it as finance does.
That said, I still like reading about it. So here’s some oil price related weekend reading that you may like. Enjoy!
- An old-ish article about how America and its allies will benefit from the falling oil price from The Economist
- Another old one (when prices were still above $70) along similar lines as the article above from Thomas Friedman
- Back to The Economist for a short one about the relationship between the oil price and Russian politics
- A recent short one about shale and geopolitics from Bloomberg
- And finish up with an update on today’s move from Reuters
Have a nice weekend, but remember – if anyone asks you where stocks are going from here, just do the right thing and tell the truth – “I DON’T KNOW!”